This seems to be the prevailing theme whenever 2025 Mr. Olympia Derek Lunsford’s name comes up with the 2026 event. A lot of people that were excited for him in 2025 when he scored the trifecta aren’t singing the same tune today. And that’s because of several factors.
For starters, Derek hasn’t competed since the Olympia. That’s both smart, but it’s also playing it very safe. I get it, you’re damned if you do and you’re damned if you don’t. Wasn’t I the writer who chastised Samson Dauda for doing the ASC right after winning the O? Yes, that would be me. And now I’m criticizing Derek for having done the opposite? In full transparency it’s a little yes and a little no. In Samson’s case I thought it was mistake because that was his first O and because he needed to ground himself a bit more. Also, Samson wasn’t as vocal as Derek has been. Dauda was a humble champion, meanwhile Derek has been anything but. Lunsford’s self-confidence has turned a lot of people off. Whereas in 2025 he looked like an underdog, in 2026 everyone is hoping that he’ll get toppled. He’s been very tough on Nick Walker and Andrew Jacked. Even legends like Lee Priest have taken to mocking the reigning champ using funny AI videos. It’s all good fun, right? Well…, yes and no. There seems to be a lot of that in this article, but Derek has only himself to blame. He’s become an exceedingly polarizing figure in physique-based sports. In many ways, his behavior reminds me of Phil Heath before his PR makeover in 2020. The difference there is an obvious one. Phil had amassed seven consecutive Sandows. His arrogance with Kai came after three wins. And by the time he was up to five or six wins, his ego was the size of Texas. Derek’s ego is equally as big, but unlike Phil, Derek lost the title once and then was able to regain it.
If the 2026 bodybuilding landscape has any guarantees it is this – no one is dominating the scene. There isn’t a Ronnie, a Phil, or even a Jay at his prime. I’d argue Jay’s prime was 2001 and 2006, but there’s just no one that’s night and day above the rest of the pack. Derek may think he’s in that category, but if he banks on it, he’ll lose. We already saw that happen, why couldn’t it happen again? It’s one thing for the champ to get in Nick’s or Andrew’s head, but he can’t be about that bullshit with his own mindset. His shots look sick and he’s definitely doing his homework, but he needs to be aware of his surroundings. Yes, Lunsford has a phenomenal back. No one’s arguing that. And yes, Derek has tremendous wheels – no one is arguing that, either, but what about everything else? What about his chest? What about his delts? What about his arms? What about his midsection and his flow? And what about the mandatory poses? Does he dominate Andrew and Nick on all of those as well?
And what about Martin? Martin Fitzwater is perhaps the most compete bodybuilder on that stage. He lacks the star power of Nick or Andrew, but that’s because those guys don’t have as many enemies as The Martian does. We can’t forget that Martin has amassed a following of writers and content creators that have it in for him. That said, the Olympia promotions feature him prominently and his numbers on social media have been growing consistently. I also feel that he’s finally linked up with a sponsor that sees the potential in him. I like Fouad and I like his brand, but who’s going to tell me that Abiad was rooting hard for Fitzwater? His predictions were conservative ones, and he was usually on the money, but as a sponsor you need to be a cheerleader for your talent. For whatever reason, I don’t think Hosstile ever really saw Martin as more than a cash cow. He made them money and he made money with them in the process, but I don’t think they featured him the way they should have. Anyways, he’s with a better company for his career now. He’s also made significant improvements – even to areas that were already impressive as they were.
Then of course there’s a whole pool of guys who could potentially upset the apple cart. You can never count out guys like William Bonac. Just when you want to wish them well in their retirement, they smash right back into the mix. If anyone has ever doubted The Conqueror, I think they realized very quickly what a foolish move that was. Brandon is another guy to watch out for. They’re from that old guard, but they’re still very dangerous. And you can’t forget that The Prodigy is a former Mr. Olympia. That right there makes him a guy you just can’t take lightly. He’s been at the top before and believe me, he knows how to get there again. I never thought Brandon should have lost the Sandow in 2020 and what he brought in 2021 was nothing short of amazing. He came with 20lbs more muscle, sharper wheels and back, and out-conditioned Ramy. It was embarrassing for The Egyptian Phenom, yet somehow, he was able to win his second Sandow. And where’s Big Ramy in 2026?
Exactly.
Hadi Choopan is also missing due to visa issues. When is that guy going to move to the U.S. or Europe? He’s one of the greatest bodybuilders in the world, but he can’t make it because of travel reasons. What a huge blow for the sport. On the flipside, It’s a huge relief for Derek. I don’t think Lunsford fears Choopan, but he’s the only guy who he’s ever taken seriously. I don’t know if that’s because they were both with Hany, or because they were both with Evogen, or if Derek maybe subconsciously doesn’t believe he beat him in the first place. Here’s the thing, though, Derek needs to look at Nick, Andrew, Martin, and Samson, in that same regard. He’s not taking them seriously in the media and I suspect he doesn’t take them seriously in his mind, either. That exposes the champ to being toppled. It’s a vulnerability that may cost him the contest.
I have to echo the sentiment I’m hearing. Pretty much everyone who is talking about a Lunsford repeat, is talking in terms of him barely hanging on. Maybe it’ll be a one-point decision or maybe it’ll be like Ramy’s win in 2021. In other words, maybe politics will save Derek. I mean let’s not forget that the guy didn’t even qualify for the Olympia he won. He got a special invite – just like Big Ramy did. Ramy wasn’t good enough to make it on his own in 2020, so they gave him a spot. In any event, when Derek is predicted to be the winner, most handicappers set the stage for a robbery or a blunder. I dissent in part. Look at me, it’s like I’m publishing a Supreme Court decision or something. Lol. But in reality, I would dissent only to the point that Derek needs there to be a fluke in order to win.
Derek Lunsford is a fantastic bodybuilder. He’s short and he’s not the most aesthetically pleasing, but he’s good enough to win without there maybe some bullshit. From the back – it’s light out. The wheels are great, too. My biggest hang-up is his mouth. Fortunately for him, there’s no box for being humble or pompous on the scorecards. Also, fortunately for him, there’s just as much of a chance of his competition being off as there is of him. No one can get cocky. All of the top guys need to fight like there’s no tomorrow because there’s no one here who stands alone out as being the undisputed best.
Even though this last point has been somewhat dispelled over the course of the last five years, I still think that to beat a reigning Mr. O, you must knock him out. It also helps if the Mr. O in question is well-liked. I’d say Derek had all the makings of being that bodybuilder next door type who everyone loved. Do they all love him after everything he’s said in 2026? That’s for you to decide. I’ve made my position quite clear. I don’t know if politics will help him, or if he’s rubbed the powers that be the wrong way, too. I guess we’ll know that on Saturday night of the Olympia Weekend.
Do you think Derek will win his 3rd Olympia title in just days? Do you think he will get edged out? Or do you think he’ll get toppled? Something tells me he’s going to HANG ON. Hanging on is basically winning by the skin of his teeth. I think the sport is somewhat in freefall, and it needs a little stability – especially at the top. If Lunsford comes in with excellent condition and poses hard, I think it’ll be difficult for him to lose the title to anyone. It won’t be an exciting win, but it’ll get us to 2027. And then who knows, maybe then a new, dominant champion will emerge.
But what say you?
As always, I hope you enjoyed reading my article, here at IronMag. Don’t forget to watch the Olympia Livestream – IT’S FREE!! Please be sure to copy and paste a link to this article on all your social media feeds. It’s bound to generate lively conversation.
Author Bio:
Christian I. Duque is the owner of StrengthAddicts.com, a physique and strength website founded in 2008. He has worked for a number of bodybuilding websites, including RX Muscle and Muscular Development. Christian has written nearly 1,000 published articles for IronMag Blog, as well as articles for StrengthAddicts, RX Muscle, and others. By day, he is also a licensed attorney practicing in the areas of family law, immigration, and criminal defense.
